The Looming Demographic
Michael L. Wise firstname.lastname@example.org March 6, 2005
Many supporters of PM Sharon’s
Disengagement Plan say that it is a very clever strategy. Evacuate Gaza,
complete the Wall to include 5-8% of the West Bank territory and 80% of its
Jewish settlement population, and then declare a Palestinian state. Sounds exciting. No more Arabs to worry
about and a great opportunity for peace and prosperity. A new Singapore, Hong Kong, Benelux, NAFTA.
All Pollyannaish images.
A significant risk associated with any
two-state plan with PA sovereignty over the West Bank is being ignored. PA
control of any part of the West Bank could result in the arrival of 2-2.5
million Arab ”refugees” over the course of 3-5 years. The right of return of
Arab refugees to Palestine is a main point of contention. PM Sharon recently
said that Palestinian refugees cannot return to Israel but may return to the
new Palestinian State. The PA claims that there are over 9 million Palestinians
worldwide. Upon declaration of a Palestinian State, many of those Palestinians
who now live in poverty will move to Palestine: 400,000+ from Lebanon, 250,000+
from Syria, 100,000+ from Iraq, 200,000+ from Egypt, 1.5 million+ from Jordan,
and 750,000+ from other locations. The opportunity to be resettled in Palestine
with enormous global financial and political support will be very attractive
and immediately accepted many of those refugees. The EU, UN, US, Russia and
others will finance the growth and economic development of Palestine. It is
estimated that in the first year, 500,000 to one million Arabs will arrive and
fill the hundreds of thousands of available empty rooms and homes on the West
Bank. Within 3 years, between 2 and 2.5 million will arrive.
Recent studies (www.pademographics.com) have
confirmed that today the population of the West Bank is at most 1.35 million.
When the number of illegal immigrants (for which there are no reliable figures)
going from the West Bank to Israel is included the number of Arabs currently
living on the West Bank will almost certainly be less than 1.25 million. The ratio of Jews to Arabs in Israel and the
West Bank has remained constant since 1967. No demographic threat!
Once a provisional Palestinian State is
declared, 500,000 Arabs will be immediately and easily absorbed. As the Arab
population in that Palestinian State grows, Israeli Arabs will understand the
long-term trends and ultimate Palestinian demographic dominance of the area
between the Jordan River and the Sea and they will begin to exert increasing
pressure on the Israeli government. Demands for equal rights, rejection of
second-class citizenship status, and the wish to be identified with their
brothers and cousins living on the other side of the Wall will mount;
identification with Palestinian nationalism, flag and anthem will grow. The
ongoing infiltration of illegal immigrants into Israel will grow.
A demand that Israel relinquish all
territory captured through “military adventurism and aggression” will be heard
throughout the world and in UN. The green line will be identified not as an
international border but solely as the 1948-1949 armistice line. No formal
treaties were ever signed and no Arab entity ever accepted Israel’s right to
exist as a Jewish State. No Palestinian Arab entity ever relinquished
claims to its part of the 1947 partition plan, or indeed to all of “Palestine”.
The international community, especially in light of the long-term claims that
Israel forcefully evicted civilians from their homes in 1948, will no longer
recognize the acquisition of land through military conquest. Pressures will
increase on Israel to cede control of parts of the Galilee and Negev to the
In the face of massive Arab migration
west of the Jordan River, Israeli Jews will recognize the Looming Demographic
Catastrophe that they are rapidly become a distinct minority and will begin to
leave Israel. Ironically, the first to leave will be the left wing pro-peace
supporters who argued so strenuously for physical separation from the Arab
population. It will be easy for them to justify abandoning the Zionist
enterprise and to seek peaceful and prosperous lives for themselves and their
families in other countries. Employment and a wide range of opportunities will
be open to this educated and secure elite. As internal Arab restlessness and
internal and border violence grows, the remaining Peace-Now members will demand
that the PA charter be changed to accept the existence of a Jewish Zionist
State. PA officials will scoff at all such requests. Indeed, no Arab group or
government has ever recognized the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state
in the midst of an Arab Moslem sea and the new demographic circumstances will
reinforce that position.
Disputes between the PA and the Jewish
State relating to water and other resources, arms, access, employment, borders,
and foreign treaties will grow and the resolve of the Jewish State to preserve
its existence will weaken. Foreign investment and financial and political
support for Israel will dry up.
As things go from bad to worse, Israel
will be faced with a decision: capitulation or wage a full-scale war to halt
and reverse the unleashed process and the demographic momentum. It is not
difficult to guess what the decision will be.
Abu Mazen understands that the military option employed over the past 100 years has failed and will continue to fail. He is clever enough to understand that there are other ways to achieve the long-term objective of destroying the State of Israel. Sharon may unwittingly be playing right into his hands.